How we work it out

Most long-distance trains start their journey as another train arriving. The railway calls it the next working: the incoming train forms the next one.

When you pick a departure, we ask the railway’s own live data which train forms it, find that train, and see how late it is.

Will it leave on time?

A train needs time at the platform before it can leave again: passengers off, cleaning, crew, checks. We call it the turnaround, and allow about 15 minutes.

• Likely: the incoming train gets in 18 minutes or more before you’re due to leave.
• Touch and go: 12 to 17 minutes.
• Not a chance: under 12. Our estimate is its arrival plus 15 minutes.
• Tight timetables: some trains, mostly commuter ones, are planned to turn round in less than 18 minutes, and usually manage it. Then we go by the timetable: there’s no slack, so the departure is as late as the incoming train. Up to a minute late is likely, up to 5 is touch and go, more is not a chance.
• No idea yet: the railway hasn’t said which train forms it. We don’t guess.

These are our estimates, not the railway’s, and we’re still tuning them against what actually happens.

The rage-o-meter

Zen, grumbly, cross, fuming, unhinged. It goes up with how late you’ll be, goes up again if nobody has said why, and again if the board says “On time” when we can see it isn’t. Cancelled is unhinged. Serious incidents get no jokes at all.